The Short Version
- D.R. Horton's orders fell 7%, and its cancellation rate rose to 23% from 20%.
- The 30-year eased a second week, to 7.24%; the Fed held, two voting to hike.
- Remodeling spending rose at a 2.7% rate in Q3, its first rise in five quarters (BEA; our check).
- Single-family permits this year: Miami +22.1%, Cape Coral–Fort Myers −27.1% (Census; our arithmetic).
- The feature: put the fuel in the price, not on the bottom of the bill.
By the Numbers
30-Yr Fixed
7.24%
▼ 0.08 W/W · Oct 29
New Home Sales
676,000
▼ 0.6% M/M (±13.8%) · Sept
Res. Investment
−3.3%
Annual rate · Q3, advance
Fed Funds
3.75–4.00%
Held, 2 voted to hike · Oct 28
This Week's Feature
Put the Fuel in the Price, Not on the Bottom of the Bill
In Houzz's latest quarterly survey, 89% of construction firms said fuel costs hit their business in the third quarter: 53% paid suppliers higher delivery charges, 46% raised prices or added fuel surcharges to bids, and 44% absorbed the cost in lower margins (Houzz, Oct 21). Firms could give more than one answer, and Houzz, which sells software to contractors, surveyed firms on its own site.
The quick fix, a fuel line added to the bill after the work, has a problem on a homeowner's job in California. Asked "Does this law prohibit a business from advertising one price and adding a variable service fee later in the transaction?", the state attorney general's FAQ on its hidden-fee law answers "Yes" (California AG).
The duller fix: know your fuel cost per job, and put it in the price you quote. It's probably smaller than it feels, 1.81% of remodelers' revenue in the 2022 Economic Census (our arithmetic). The size is the easy part. Where fuel shows up on the bill is the part with rules.
Keep reading (7 min)Voice of the Builder
D.R. Horton says the quarter got harder: orders down 7%, cancellations up to 23%.
D.R. Horton, which calls itself America's largest builder by volume, said "housing market conditions became more challenging during the fourth quarter" (July to September). Orders fell 7%; its cancellation rate rose to 23% from 20%. It expects "incentives to remain elevated in fiscal 2027" and guides to 79,000–84,000 closings against 84,202 this year, flat to 6% fewer (our arithmetic; D.R. Horton, Oct 29).
Meritage's orders fell 15% on "21% lower average absorption pace," as it "intentionally focused on preserving margins" (Meritage, Oct 28). Dream Finders' fell 15%, but rose 6% excluding built-for-rent (Dream Finders, Oct 29). Green Brick's rose 3%, with incentives at 11% (Green Brick, Oct 28).
What it means on your jobsite
Work out your own cancellation rate before you schedule crews against your backlog: contracts cancelled in the last 12 months, divided by all you signed in that time. D.R. Horton's, figured that way for one quarter, was 23%. A backlog counted at 100% of what's signed is a schedule built on a number you've never measured.
- Homeownership didn't measurably rise. NAHB's headline reads "Homeownership Rate Rises to 65.5%." Census says the 65.5% "was not statistically different" from a year earlier (65.3%) or from Q2 (65.0%). What did move: rental vacancy, 7.6%, "higher than" 7.1% a year ago. Census, Oct 28
- The economy grew 3.4%; housing shrank. Real GDP rose at a 3.4% annual rate in Q3; residential investment fell 3.3% and single-family 5.0%, while multifamily rose 0.3%. Advance estimates, revised Nov 25. NAHB on BEA, Oct 29
- One factory-built maker had a record quarter. Cavco's home sales volume rose 15.3% in the quarter to Sept 26, its "second consecutive quarter of record revenue and unit volume," with a $348 million backlog. Same page: "orders were off the preceding quarter pace." Cavco, Oct 29
Bright Spots
- Remodeling spending turned up. Real spending on improvements rose at a 2.7% annual rate in Q3 (NAHB on BEA, Oct 29): the first quarterly rise since Q2 2025, though still 0.65% below a year earlier, in an advance estimate (our check of BEA's data file, series A946RX).
- Labor costs are climbing more slowly. Construction's total compensation rose 3.1% in the 12 months to September, from 3.8% a year earlier and below private industry's 3.4% (BLS, Oct 30).
- Fewer new homes to compete with. Builders had 476,000 new homes for sale in September, 1.0% (±0.9%) fewer than in August, one of two changes in the release that clear their margin (Census). Barely, and at September's sales pace that's still 8.4 months' supply.
Then again: The supplier's view is flatter. Builders FirstSource's core organic repair-and-remodel/other sales rose just 0.3% in the quarter, and its 2026 assumptions have remodel activity down 1% (Builders FirstSource, Oct 29). Staff remodel crews for the work you've signed, not for one quarter's 2.7%.
Hot Markets
| Metro | SF permits, Jan–Sep vs. 2025 | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Miami–Fort Lauderdale–West Palm Beach, FL | +22.1% | 4,079 → 4,982, top % gain of the 38; all units flat, 5+ units down 592 |
| Columbus, OH | +12.1% | 4,005 → 4,489: last week's resale row, now backed by permits |
| Wilmington, NC | +7.4% | 5,003 → 5,372; September rose too, 490 → 581 |
Single-family units permitted, from Census's metro files posted Oct 27. The screen is ours: the 38 metros with 4,000+ units in Jan–Sep 2025, each checked against Census's reported-only columns. Oklahoma City (+10.7%) is out: 29% of its 2026 units were reported, against 91% of 2025's. Last week's other resale rows pulled fewer: Philadelphia −16.2%, and Pittsburgh, below our floor at 2,721 units, −11.3%. All metros: −3.0%.
Cooling: Cape Coral–Fort Myers, FL: 8,114 → 5,918, −27.1%, the largest fall of the 38, fully reported both years. Framers, plumbers and concrete subs there will be chasing work: rebid your trades before you renew last year's prices.
Design Trends · Remodeling
More homeowners say they prefer a pro, on smaller budgets: 48%, up from 33%, in a window-and-gutter seller's survey, while plans over $50,000 fell to 7% from 12%.
We found no remodeling design research published this week, so this slot reads client behavior instead. Great Day Improvements, which sells windows, gutters and patio enclosures direct to homeowners, surveyed 2,826 homeowners aged 30 to 75 with household incomes of $75,000 and up for its 2027 report (Oct 6). It doesn't say when or how they were recruited, and the year-ago figures are its own comparison. The most common budget is now $10,000–$19,999, and 39% rank "clear cost understanding" first in choosing a renovation partner, ahead of warranties (35%) and the lowest quote (22%).
How to sell it
Put the total price on page one and the scope lines under it. Then price one package inside $10,000–$19,999 from a scope you've built before. The survey measured no win rate, so don't promise the client one.
AI on the Jobsite
Translate the look-ahead, then make the model translate it back
ChatGPT-4 translated 97% of emergency-department sentences into Spanish accurately in a 2026 study (BMJ Quality & Safety), yet 16% of instruction sets still held at least one error, found by professional back-translation. Hospitals, not jobsites, but one wrong date fails a schedule the same way. Mexican Spanish writes the day first, so 11/3 is 11 March. The model's own back-translation lets you check dates, quantities and tasks, but not a trade term it gets wrong both ways. Before pasting, swap client names and addresses for job numbers, and delete phone numbers and gate or lockbox codes. Then a bilingual person reads the Spanish before it goes to the crew: the round trip is a check, not a sign-off.
Copy this prompt
Below is my crew's schedule for the next two weeks, in English. Translate it into Spanish for my crew lead. Spell out every date's day and month (martes 3 de noviembre), never numbers like 11/3. Keep every quantity, measurement, time and job number exactly as written, in digits. Don't add, drop, merge or reorder anything. Then translate your Spanish back into English, line by line, beside my original, so I can check nothing changed. Last, list every construction term you weren't sure how to say in Spanish, with the word you chose. A bilingual person will check the Spanish before it goes to the crew, so put the terms they should check first at the top.
Time saved: Nothing published measures it. Count your crew lead's schedule calls in the two weeks before and after.
JobTread Tip of the Week
A contractor's session on JobTread with Spanish-speaking crews
A Pro Spotlight episode posted Oct 28, not a JobTread tutorial. Its description calls it an "entry-level crash course" that "walks through the core JobTread features - scheduling, to-dos, tasks, and documentation - through the lens of working with Spanish-speaking employees and trade partners," with "practical strategies for bridging the language gap on your projects today." That one paragraph is all the description holds: no steps to pass on, and no claim that JobTread translates anything. The pairing with the tip above is ours.
The Punch List
- Primary Mortgage Market Survey — Freddie Mac, Oct 29
- New Residential Sales, September — Census, Oct 27
- FOMC statement — Federal Reserve, Oct 28
- Next prints: construction spending Nov 2; JOLTS Nov 3; HMI Nov 17; SF starts Nov 18; new home sales, metro permits and Q3 GDP revision Nov 25
Quitting Time
Why is the 2x4 so insecure?
It's never once measured up to its name.