The Short Version
- Correction: last week's AI tip had you attach vendor bills without saying to black out any bank details and tax IDs printed on them. Ink them out on paper and attach a photo: a box drawn over a PDF leaves the text readable.
- The Fed's minutes: most officials saw another increase as likely appropriate by year end. The 30-year hit 7.40%.
- 56.2% of construction businesses said the prices they pay rose in Sept 7–20; 24.4% said the prices they charge did (Census).
- The two-story foyer rose back to 25.6% of 2025's new homes. In August we called it disqualifying.
- The feature: how ten small injuries can outweigh one big one in a workers' comp mod.
By the Numbers
30-Yr Fixed
7.40%
▲ 0.12 W/W · Oct 8
Diesel
$6.20
▼ $0.18 W/W · Oct 5
Remodel Index
62
▲ 1 Q/Q · Q3, quarterly
Purchase Apps Y/Y
−15%
▼ 2% W/W (SA) · wk to Oct 2
This Week's Feature
Ten Small Injuries Can Raise Your Comp Mod More Than One Big One
Two employers each have $50,000 in workers' comp losses. One had a single $50,000 injury; the other had ten at $5,000 apiece. In the worked example NCCI uses to teach its experience rating plan, the ten-injury employer "receives a much higher mod than the 1-injury employer, even though its total losses are the same."
The mod is the multiplier the plan puts on a workers' comp premium, and NCCI is the rating organization that publishes the plan. Its example is an illustration, not a measurement of real employers, but it shows the design: the plan weighs how often people get hurt more heavily than how badly.
That runs against instinct. An owner remembers the big claim and shrugs off the ordinary ones on a jobsite or shop floor: a strained back, a fall from a stepladder, a week or two off work for each. Claims like those are what the formula leans on, and NCCI built it that way on purpose.
Keep reading (8 min)Voice of the Builder
Most Fed officials judged another increase likely appropriate by year end, with the 30-year at 7.40%.
The minutes of the Fed's Sept 15–16 meeting, released Oct 7, are the week's new fact: "most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end" (Fed).
Freddie Mac put the 30-year at 7.40% on Oct 8 (PMMS), a seventh straight weekly rise and the highest since November 2023 in Freddie's weekly history. The 10-year Treasury closed at 5.31% on Oct 5, its highest close since May 2002 in Treasury's daily data (our check back to 2001), before easing to 5.22% on Oct 8.
What it means on your jobsite
Pull the paperwork on your own borrowing: the line of credit, the equipment note, the truck loan. Prime moved with the Fed's September increase, from 6.75% to 7.00%, and held there through Oct 7 (H.15). List which lines float on prime, the margin on each and what's drawn, so you know which balances reprice if the Fed raises again.
- A third of construction firms say rates cut their profits. 32.9% of construction businesses said interest-rate changes had decreased their profitability in the last six months, from 29.0% two weeks earlier, a rise outside the survey's margin (our arithmetic). Census files the survey as experimental. Census BTOS, Oct 8
- The 2x4 fell 5% in a month, and freight got in the way. Western SPF 2x4 ran US$464/mbf in the week to Sept 25, from $490 a month earlier, still 8% above a year ago. "Purchasers often walked away from attractive sawmill pricing once freight costs were factored in." Madison's, Oct 7
- Lenders cut back on cash-out refinances. MBA's credit availability index fell just 0.2% in September, but lenders "reduced offerings of loans that allow for cash-out refinances and investor home purchases," said MBA's Joel Kan. MBA, Oct 9
Bright Spots
- Diesel came 33¢ off its nominal record in two weeks. EIA's U.S. average was $6.199 a gallon on Oct 5, from $6.529 on Sept 21, a nominal record for its weekly series back to 1994 (our check). Still +$2.49 on a year ago. EIA, Oct 6
- Remodelers are holding steady. NAHB's Remodeling Market Index read 62 in Q3, up one; large projects ($50,000+) rose two to 66, while small and mid-size readings slipped. A sentiment index, not spending, with no margin printed. NAHB, Oct 8
- Trade and supply partners hit a nominal revenue high. NAHB associate members' median gross revenue was $3.4 million in 2025, up 12%, "the highest (in nominal terms)" in 18 years of NAHB's member census. Self-reported; 42% are trade contractors, the rest manufacturers, retailers, designers and others. NAHB, Oct 5
Then again: The same remodeling release: "Labor shortages, exacerbated by immigration enforcement and competition from data center construction, are extending the time it takes to complete projects." NAHB's account, not a measurement. If your jobs are running longer, bid the weeks you'll actually run.
Hot Markets
| Metro | Rank, Sept | Views vs U.S. | Days on market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kenosha, WI | 1st | 3.0× | 32 |
| Hartford, CT | 2nd | 4.2×, most in the top 20 | 35 |
| Rockford, IL | 3rd | 2.8× | 35 |
No Census metro permit file posted, so the source changes again: Realtor.com's September Hottest Housing Markets, Oct 9. It ranks views per property and how long listings stay active on Realtor.com's own site: buyer attention on listings, not builder activity or prices.
Cooling: Manchester–Nashua, NH went from 8th in July to 38th in September, at 48 days on market. It has ranked first 35 times since 2017, more than any metro in Realtor.com's data. Check your county's permits before a rank goes into a staffing plan.
Design Trends · New Construction
The two-story foyer edged back up to 25.6% of 2025's new homes, the highest share since 2022.
In August, issue 01 called the two-story foyer "disqualifying" and cited a 24.6% share of 2024's new homes, the lowest NAHB had tracked. The build share went back up, though still below 2017–2020 levels. NAHB's Oct 5 read of the Census Survey of Construction for 2025 shows where it lives: 65.5% of homes of 5,000 sq ft or more had one, the highest since 2017, against 40.4% at 3,000–4,999 and 9.9%–24.5% under 3,000. Contractor-built homes fell to 29.8%, a fourth straight decline. The post repeats issue 01's buyer figure (32% likely to reject one); what moved is what got built.
The spec change
Spec the foyer by size, not habit. At 5,000 sq ft and up it's on about two homes in three; under 3,000, fewer than one in four, so a plan under 3,000 sq ft has to earn a two-story entry in the price. If you took it off your smaller plans after August, the 2025 data doesn't send you back.
AI on the Jobsite
Have the model interview you for your unit prices
56.2% of employer businesses in construction said the prices they pay rose in Sept 7–20; 24.4% said the prices they charge did, not necessarily the same firms (Census BTOS, Oct 8). Write down what you price from first: the model asks, you answer, and every number on the page is yours, dated. No attachments needed; if you attach an old job-cost report to jog your memory, ink out client names and addresses, bank and card numbers, tax IDs and SSNs on paper and attach a photo; if you paste one, delete them first.
Copy this prompt
Interview me so I can write down how I price [the job I price most often, e.g. a hall-bath gut]. Ask one question at a time and wait for my answer. Cover what I count, crew size and hours per unit, waste, what I buy and from whom, what I add for what always goes wrong, and what makes this job run long. Never suggest a number or fill a gap with a typical one. Record ranges as ranges. If two of my answers disagree, stop and ask which is right. Then give me one page: each line, my number, and the job and month I said it came from. Flag every number I "think" rather than know, and every one more than six months old.
Time saved: Nothing published measures the hours this saves, so measure the outcome: estimated against actual hours per line on the next three jobs priced off the sheet.
JobTread Tip of the Week
Track cost and time by cost code, so the sheet meets the job
The AI tip's sheet says what a line should take; cost-code tracking shows what it took. JobTread's description: "When enabled, JobTread will project and reconcile costs at the cost code level, simplifying reporting, improving accuracy, and making your budgets easier to manage." It lists no steps, so we haven't written any. Our suggestion, not JobTread's: give each line on the interview sheet its cost code, so the next job's actuals land beside your number.
The Punch List
- FOMC minutes, Sept 15–16 — Federal Reserve, Oct 7
- Weekly Applications Survey, week ending Oct 2 — MBA, Oct 7; MBA reuses this link for later weeks
- Business Trends and Outlook Survey — Census, Oct 8
- Next prints: PPI Oct 15 (BLS); single-family starts Oct 20, new home sales Oct 27 (Census)
Quitting Time
Why did the plumber retire early?
They were flush.